Bold statement: The MLB offseason is already shaping up as a game of high-stakes closer hunts, surprising returns from Korea, and potential shakeups at second base—and the drama is just getting started. Here’s a fresh, clearer take on what the chatter is really about, with context to help beginners follow the moves and the motives behind them.
Pete Fairbanks could be the next closer to land a contract, now that Ryan Helsley is off the market. The Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins are among the teams in the mix, according to industry sources familiar with the market. Toronto has already agreed to a seven-year deal with free-agent right-hander Dylan Cease and continues pursuing late-inning relievers. They were connected to three relievers who have since signed elsewhere—Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, and Phil Maton—and Fairbanks, who has styled himself as a shutdown option in high-leverage situations, is drawing interest as a potential missing piece. In 27 career innings against the Blue Jays, Fairbanks has held Toronto opponents to a .130 batting average and a .468 OPS, underscoring his effectiveness when facing them. Fairbanks turns 32 next month and will be familiar to Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, who spent 2009–2021 with the Rays. Other teams are also monitoring the market, with most contenders reportedly touching base in search of upgrade options.
In his third season as the Rays’ full-time closer, Fairbanks posted a 2.83 ERA over 60 innings and tied a career high with 27 saves. Tampa Bay declined his $11 million club option after the season, choosing instead a $1 million buyout to keep their offseason budget flexible. With the markets continuing to develop for Edwin Díaz, Devin Williams, and Robert Suárez, Fairbanks presents a credible, under-the-radar alternative for teams seeking a late-inning lock-down arm. Helsley recently agreed to a two-year, $28 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles, pending a physical, suggesting Fairbanks could command a similar structure if not a comparable total.
Return from Korea: Is Cody Ponce a $30–$40 million investment?
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris highlighted Cody Ponce as a potential bargain in free agency, noting his time in Korea last season and his absence from the majors since 2021. Industry sources now suggest Ponce could command a three-year contract in the $30 million range, possibly exceeding $40 million. The previous high for a pitcher returning from Korea was Erick Fedde’s two-year, $15 million deal with the White Sox before the 2024 season.
Sarris described Ponce as having sat at 93 mph with the Pirates in 2020–21, then gaining velocity and improving his breaking ball after moving to the Hanwha Eagles in Korea. His new splitter became a plus pitch, and his strikeout rate rose above any other pitcher who had come over from the Korean Baseball Organization. Ponce, listed at 6'6" and 255 pounds, went 17–1 with Hanwha, posting a 1.89 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 180 2/3 innings. He spent the prior three seasons in Japan, where the results were less impressive.
Astros’ Meyers drawing center-field interest
With few top center-field options available in free agency or via trade, teams are eyeing the Houston Astros’ Jake Meyers as a potential target. MLB Trade Rumors projects Meyers to earn about $3.5 million in the first of his two remaining years of club control. Houston has indicated openness to moving him in exchange for a controllable major-league starter, signaling a broader market interest for Meyers as he enters his age-30 season.
Several clubs are connected in the search for upgrades in center field, including the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Rays, along with the Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Royals. Meyers is a strong defender, which adds value even if his offensive output doesn’t fully replicate last year’s gains. He appeared in 104 games last season due to a right calf issue, posting a .292/.727 line; that’s a noticeable improvement over his career averages, though still modest by traditional outfield standards when adjusted for park and league context.
Rays and second-base questions: Is a Lowe trade coming?
The Rays have long considered trading Brandon Lowe, and with Lowe slated to earn $11.5 million in the final year of his deal, a deal could finally become reality. At 31, Lowe fits as a target for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are casting a wide net for left-handed hitters and may prefer acquisitions via trade rather than free agency. Other interested sides include the Oakland A’s and the San Francisco Giants.
Trading Lowe would create an opening at second base for the Rays, who currently lack a clear internal answer at that position. A hypothetical double-play duo of Carson Williams and Taylor Walls might struggle offensively, and Jonathan Aranda has only limited major-league experience at second. Chandler Simpson hasn’t played infield regularly since college. While a second-base upgrade might be necessary, replacing Lowe—who connected for 31 homers last season and has an OPS+ well above league average—won’t be easy. His career marks place him high on the Rays’ all-time list for home runs.
Coaching turnover signals progress for the Marlins
One way to gauge an organization’s progress is by watching how many major-league coaches leave for other clubs. After lifting the Marlins from 62 wins in 2024 to 79 wins in 2025, Miami lost three coaches: assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon to the White Sox as their hitting coach; first-base coach Tyler Smarslok to the Nationals as field coordinator; and catching coach Joe Singley to the Orioles as field coordinator and catching coach.
Frequent staff turnover—spanning both major-league and minor-league levels—helps explain why the free-agent and trade markets often quiet down in November, as teams redirect their attention to filling internal positions before prioritizing roster upgrades.
Contributors: The Athletic’s Chandler Rome
